yizheng chemical
2010年10月16日 星期六
my chinese typing is bad, anyway give my views in english as brief as i can.
share outstanding of yizheng (1033.hk/600871.ch) is 4000m shares. after sharp rise in H share to 3.14 it implies in h share valuation 12560m hkd market capitalization
such valuation is still very reasonable compared with a share price of 9.82 rmb, a 71% discount.
i am not sure why the discount is so large. without any narrow of valuation gap some points can be noted
1) out of 4000m share outstanding, 1680m held by sinopec, 720m citic group, ccb fund holds 25m, boc fund holds 6.5m, senior management holds 7.12m, a investment co from shanxi holds 1.50m. turnover in hong kong H and shanghai A for this share last 3 days was huge. total share t/o is 313+35.52m=348.52m. this will arrive at 2753.12m shares. if assume the 'diehard' holder to be 2404m, which are the long term investors stated above, the % changed hand is 21% of shares that are actually transactable. is it merely a speculation for privitization? that is way too high a percent to be resulted if this is the only reason
2) petrochemical industry is favored by rise in RMB, 1% of rise in RMB will result in 6-12% rise in EPS, according to GS
3) oil price has stood above 84 usd/barrel which means the refinery margin by petrochemical industry can be reset, refinery margin goes to 8 usd level because the refined oil price will rise next week by 3%
4) 卢立勇 is newly appointed as president. shareholding structure of 934 has changed late last month. seems restructuring is happening within the group. a good article from findingalpha about food and chemical consolidation in china
http://bit.ly/m4VwET
5) capacity wise, PTA and EG price will have limited downside risk because the capacity expansion has been slow. the reason is because the sector was in terrible shape last 3 years. if you look at 1033 annual report, in 2008 it suffered a 1.9b hkd loss, largest in its history. however after the petrochemical rule has rolled out in 2009, the environment for petrochemical industry has been much improved. do remember yizheng is worlds largest manufacturer of polymer and china's largest.
6) use of PTA is mostly for manufacturing of PET, main material for making of plastic bottles which has been experiencing tremendous growth in last 5 and probably next 10 to 20 years because of accumulation of middle class and urbanization acceleration
7) another material they make is polyester fiber strips 绦纶短纤. historically, the difference in pricing between PFS and cotton is only 3k-5k rmb/tonne, because cotton has gone up so much these 2 months, the spread is now 11k. very likely therefore PFS will also increase which improve 1033 margin
8) valuation of 1033.hk is np1h 432 ne1h 7344 which means 1.51x PB and 12.9x PE, because of raw material rise very likely this year PE will come down to 10x PE and only single digit next year. the best case for yizheng will be for oil price to steadily rise, e.g. 10% in six months, rmb appreciates gently, cotton price flat or steadily rises, weather to become cold/extremely cold. for sinopec, it will be best if they can privitize this company as early as possible. previously because of leakage of information, they have spent an additional 5b rmb to privitize jilin chemical and beijing chemical
9) there is notice from a share exchange that a share reform may be happening next week or by end of october
http://bit.ly/izIYjY
2011年7月2日 星期六
veeko 1173.hk
veeko 1173.hk
2010年12月15日 星期三
at 0.475 hkd, market cap 970m
-seasonality implies sales 1H:2H is 1:3, probably net profit FY10/11 is 80m-100m
-same store sales similar to luk fook, but much quicker than bonjour and sasa
-networkwise, it has more outlets already then bonjour, second in hong kong
-gross margin expansion: colder weather will give higher ASP for their wanko, veeko apparel; by having more self-owned brands; by having more exclusive brand names
-operating margin expansion:when SKU increases from the 17,000 units level; when there are more customers visiting per shop; one note that colourmix is very quiet compared to the incumbents, however their op growth yoy was already 90%
-secular trend where hk clients are displaced by chinese. ticket sales, chinese customers 600, hong kong 100. now only 30% of sales are chinese
-valuation wise, FY10/11 11x based on 88m profit, 80% dividend payout means 7.3%, 60% means 5%
-relative valuation, 0178.hk (5 hkd) is 25x PE for 40% growth, 0653.hk (1.52 hkd) is 20x PE for 30% growth, 1173.hk (0.475 hkd) is 11x PE for 90% growth
-in terms of sales mix, 1173.hk sells apparel in china, already making profit. sasa china business is LBIT until 2 years later (2013), bonjour has just started first cosmetic shop in guangzhou, even make profit first year, it will be small. and because SKU is lot (thus quarantine, distribution, etc), they need a lot more effort to replicate to other places in china.
-one note that most of their shops they are benefited from chinese 'free-walkers', e.g. causeway bay and canton road, are new only in 2010/2011 financial year
-investors now include VP and CAM. they have very strong track record in buying undervalued stocks. CAM top up price is 0.45 hkd
2010年12月15日 星期三
at 0.475 hkd, market cap 970m
-seasonality implies sales 1H:2H is 1:3, probably net profit FY10/11 is 80m-100m
-same store sales similar to luk fook, but much quicker than bonjour and sasa
-networkwise, it has more outlets already then bonjour, second in hong kong
-gross margin expansion: colder weather will give higher ASP for their wanko, veeko apparel; by having more self-owned brands; by having more exclusive brand names
-operating margin expansion:when SKU increases from the 17,000 units level; when there are more customers visiting per shop; one note that colourmix is very quiet compared to the incumbents, however their op growth yoy was already 90%
-secular trend where hk clients are displaced by chinese. ticket sales, chinese customers 600, hong kong 100. now only 30% of sales are chinese
-valuation wise, FY10/11 11x based on 88m profit, 80% dividend payout means 7.3%, 60% means 5%
-relative valuation, 0178.hk (5 hkd) is 25x PE for 40% growth, 0653.hk (1.52 hkd) is 20x PE for 30% growth, 1173.hk (0.475 hkd) is 11x PE for 90% growth
-in terms of sales mix, 1173.hk sells apparel in china, already making profit. sasa china business is LBIT until 2 years later (2013), bonjour has just started first cosmetic shop in guangzhou, even make profit first year, it will be small. and because SKU is lot (thus quarantine, distribution, etc), they need a lot more effort to replicate to other places in china.
-one note that most of their shops they are benefited from chinese 'free-walkers', e.g. causeway bay and canton road, are new only in 2010/2011 financial year
-investors now include VP and CAM. they have very strong track record in buying undervalued stocks. CAM top up price is 0.45 hkd
midland ic&i 0459.hk
midland ic&i 0459.hk
2011年1月6日 星期四
market capitalization: 847m hkd @ 0.102, note due to CB conversion there will be another 550m shares
background
-it used to be a unlisted subsidiary of midland co (1200.hk). in 2005, it was spun off and backdoor list by acquiring 8070 EVI education. consideration was 650m hkd, whereby 550m hkd is in terms of CB (mature 2012, strike 0.10 hkd) and 100m is cash
-it became a speculation vehicle after government announced additional stamp duty in december, which effective curb short term investment for residential property
valuation
-if based on 1H10 net profit, which was 40m, the PE10x will be 10.56x. this can only be fair given midland also only trading at single digit PE
-however if one uses december as a benchmark, whereby transaction surge 30% for c&i, it means an adjusted turnover in hong kong will be 130b, if there is 10% rise in quantity transacted, and 20% rise in asset value, it will become 169b and 220b; at 20% market share (calculation see others) and npm 18+2% (based on their latest financial statement +2% because of operating leverage), midland ic&i earns 135m in 2011, 180m in 2012, which is 6x PE11 and 7.8x PE12.
-if ex cash, it is 4.2x PE FY11, 3.15x PE FY12
environment fundamental
-effectively the fundamental environment has changed
1) government policy is likely to be long term. this is because residential supply is limited, and there will only be slight supply up to 2012. in that case it is the interests of politicians to show them they have exert greatest effort to curb residential price from rising; for c&i however, the bargaining powers are on the chalbol's hands. for example wharf, cheung kong. if government rises stamp duty for c&i too they will face huge pressure from these parties, since asset value of ic&i is based on large transactions which are possible only through larger developers/professional investors. therefore they will be quite dumb if officials decide to do any regulatory control over c&i as well
2) for commerical property (office space) hong kong is still low in value compared to tokyo, new york, london. and it will cause huge impact to hong kong has a free trading port should there be disincentive towards investing in real estates, in particular those they cause no direct impact to societal stability (as in residential); affordability is seen much higher for those Foreign Owned Enterprises which has global presence hence holistic approach towards rent payments across the world
3) The probability of mainland Chinese investing in C&I is high. although it does not reflect in current situation in hong kong yet, it is highly likely because the rule of games for residential is similar to ic&i
4) FOE has speeded process to increase investment in China through Hong Kong. This year one can see companies such as hedge funds, MNCs (Starbucks, Mcdonalds) have shown unprecedented effort to invest in China. In this case Hong Kong must benefit
5) land supply: for tier 1 office space it has almost no further increment, except 陸海通 luk hoi tong mansion in Central and the reconstruction of des voeux road mansion next to central market
6) commission is based on QxP which gives notional amount of property transacted. looking at P, it is likely to rise 20% for tier 1 commercial/retail for next 2 years, with at least 10% rise in quantity transacted due to 3 major reason (Chinese investor, Foreign investor, and residential investor going into the ic&i pool)
Financial fundamental
1) company has 285m cash as at 1H10; 12m short term debt; gross gearing 52.90%; net cash -272; net gearing -52.90% (net cash)
2) very high operating leverage, major operating items are labor cost which is 51 and 54% of cost, but it is highly adjustable in downside and grow less than top line in upswing in economy (staff benefit mostly through commission which is variable basis); 回佣 is very stable, for example 224m sales in 1H10 (138m sales in 1H09) but 回佣 was maintained at 17m in these 2 halves
3) after midland convert CB @0.10 hkd, it will have 285+550=835m cash on hand (and more given operating cash inflow). with this money on hand the company most likely will pay out special dividend. this cash if paid out half or 420m already represent a 30% annual dividend; alternative is acquire is chinese business in property dealing. which seems still to have a virgin land (many agencies in china, but well regulated with good network is very few). Anyway a special dividend is in good sense given midland will hold 71% of interests at c&i at that time
Others
1) no market share information. however if based on a rough estimate of turnover in hong kong &i has 100b hkd, and midland get 224m sales, it implies 20% market share; it is 25% larger than centaline so it is 20% and 16% for top 2. add together its still 36%, which means there is still room to grow at expense of smaller companies
2) property agents is close to a heterogeneous service provider (like value partners) than a homogeneous service provide (like brokerage). network and database is very important. that is how midland and centaline can always establish well presence in hong kong different districts because smaller agencies ought to rely on them to increase turnover, by referring good value properties to their clients, or by referring good customers to them
2011年1月6日 星期四
market capitalization: 847m hkd @ 0.102, note due to CB conversion there will be another 550m shares
background
-it used to be a unlisted subsidiary of midland co (1200.hk). in 2005, it was spun off and backdoor list by acquiring 8070 EVI education. consideration was 650m hkd, whereby 550m hkd is in terms of CB (mature 2012, strike 0.10 hkd) and 100m is cash
-it became a speculation vehicle after government announced additional stamp duty in december, which effective curb short term investment for residential property
valuation
-if based on 1H10 net profit, which was 40m, the PE10x will be 10.56x. this can only be fair given midland also only trading at single digit PE
-however if one uses december as a benchmark, whereby transaction surge 30% for c&i, it means an adjusted turnover in hong kong will be 130b, if there is 10% rise in quantity transacted, and 20% rise in asset value, it will become 169b and 220b; at 20% market share (calculation see others) and npm 18+2% (based on their latest financial statement +2% because of operating leverage), midland ic&i earns 135m in 2011, 180m in 2012, which is 6x PE11 and 7.8x PE12.
-if ex cash, it is 4.2x PE FY11, 3.15x PE FY12
environment fundamental
-effectively the fundamental environment has changed
1) government policy is likely to be long term. this is because residential supply is limited, and there will only be slight supply up to 2012. in that case it is the interests of politicians to show them they have exert greatest effort to curb residential price from rising; for c&i however, the bargaining powers are on the chalbol's hands. for example wharf, cheung kong. if government rises stamp duty for c&i too they will face huge pressure from these parties, since asset value of ic&i is based on large transactions which are possible only through larger developers/professional investors. therefore they will be quite dumb if officials decide to do any regulatory control over c&i as well
2) for commerical property (office space) hong kong is still low in value compared to tokyo, new york, london. and it will cause huge impact to hong kong has a free trading port should there be disincentive towards investing in real estates, in particular those they cause no direct impact to societal stability (as in residential); affordability is seen much higher for those Foreign Owned Enterprises which has global presence hence holistic approach towards rent payments across the world
3) The probability of mainland Chinese investing in C&I is high. although it does not reflect in current situation in hong kong yet, it is highly likely because the rule of games for residential is similar to ic&i
4) FOE has speeded process to increase investment in China through Hong Kong. This year one can see companies such as hedge funds, MNCs (Starbucks, Mcdonalds) have shown unprecedented effort to invest in China. In this case Hong Kong must benefit
5) land supply: for tier 1 office space it has almost no further increment, except 陸海通 luk hoi tong mansion in Central and the reconstruction of des voeux road mansion next to central market
6) commission is based on QxP which gives notional amount of property transacted. looking at P, it is likely to rise 20% for tier 1 commercial/retail for next 2 years, with at least 10% rise in quantity transacted due to 3 major reason (Chinese investor, Foreign investor, and residential investor going into the ic&i pool)
Financial fundamental
1) company has 285m cash as at 1H10; 12m short term debt; gross gearing 52.90%; net cash -272; net gearing -52.90% (net cash)
2) very high operating leverage, major operating items are labor cost which is 51 and 54% of cost, but it is highly adjustable in downside and grow less than top line in upswing in economy (staff benefit mostly through commission which is variable basis); 回佣 is very stable, for example 224m sales in 1H10 (138m sales in 1H09) but 回佣 was maintained at 17m in these 2 halves
3) after midland convert CB @0.10 hkd, it will have 285+550=835m cash on hand (and more given operating cash inflow). with this money on hand the company most likely will pay out special dividend. this cash if paid out half or 420m already represent a 30% annual dividend; alternative is acquire is chinese business in property dealing. which seems still to have a virgin land (many agencies in china, but well regulated with good network is very few). Anyway a special dividend is in good sense given midland will hold 71% of interests at c&i at that time
Others
1) no market share information. however if based on a rough estimate of turnover in hong kong &i has 100b hkd, and midland get 224m sales, it implies 20% market share; it is 25% larger than centaline so it is 20% and 16% for top 2. add together its still 36%, which means there is still room to grow at expense of smaller companies
2) property agents is close to a heterogeneous service provider (like value partners) than a homogeneous service provide (like brokerage). network and database is very important. that is how midland and centaline can always establish well presence in hong kong different districts because smaller agencies ought to rely on them to increase turnover, by referring good value properties to their clients, or by referring good customers to them
10 things about midland property
10 things about midland property (1200.hk)
2011-05-28
10 things about midland property
1. Property demand switched from hk internal to Chinese customers
2. Low interest rate persist, while stock market volatility increases due to capital flow, political uncertainty
3. Low PE
4. High dividend
5. Change in management
6. High beta after market correction
7. Actively monitored by long funds
8. Reliable management with long track record of maintaining market leadership
9. Strong balance sheet
10.Asset light business model
2011-05-28
10 things about midland property
1. Property demand switched from hk internal to Chinese customers
2. Low interest rate persist, while stock market volatility increases due to capital flow, political uncertainty
3. Low PE
4. High dividend
5. Change in management
6. High beta after market correction
7. Actively monitored by long funds
8. Reliable management with long track record of maintaining market leadership
9. Strong balance sheet
10.Asset light business model
2009年9月30日 星期三
Happy birthday, China
It may look flattering, but i am certainly proud of what has happened since founding of the republic, esp its development in the latest 30 years. as many critics have pointed out, the macroecononmic policy, government policy in developing economic zones, privatization of land, introduction of education, drainage, energy resources for citizens' consumption have been on the right track. Politically although there are more doubts about whether the one party policy can be sustainable and whether the scrunity of media have been correct, to do the less evil probably the prc government have no choice. of course there are much better analysts in this area than me as i am no one in the realm of politics. What I would say is I believe China is now maintained under able hands, and optimissism in the mainland is not "blind". The mainland Chineses well have their rights to be optimistic, and with the foreseeable growth in their net wealth, career development and improvement of living in last decades, this is well justified. Causes and consequences both meet their ends.
I woke up early for the republic's 60th anniversary flag ceremony held at wanchai. i think this is meaningful (and to present knowledge, I do not expect there is another 60th anniversary I see in my life) the moment when everyone including lots of mainlanders chanted the national anthem was simply touching. I can feel the warmth, good hope and joy people have in them. Equally importantly is the self-critism we have as Chinese: the ability to rectify our mistakes, to vigorously reshape the current process flow (in many systems, such as medicine, education), to emphasize the need for greener enivornment, to reward and encourage development of science and technology. WE Chinese have demonstrated to the world our ability to imitate and modify what we learnt from foreign powers, but the eras of invention and science renaissance were utterly remote (When, say, have we invented something since firework and compass, which were important breakthrough in their years?). It is no more due to coincidence or unique environment we rely on to create, but a system of reward, refinement, datamining, sharing and analysis that we could achieve our golden age of science and technology once again.
I like the article written by mr lam hang chi titled "且耀武慎揚威 莫忘天高地厚 " criticising problems in prc. they are a bit blunt, but thats what we chinese need to become a bigger nation. let us maintain this level of awareness and criticism and admiration of high intellectuals. In this way we can still anticipate a hopeful motherland.
Happy birthday, China.
I woke up early for the republic's 60th anniversary flag ceremony held at wanchai. i think this is meaningful (and to present knowledge, I do not expect there is another 60th anniversary I see in my life) the moment when everyone including lots of mainlanders chanted the national anthem was simply touching. I can feel the warmth, good hope and joy people have in them. Equally importantly is the self-critism we have as Chinese: the ability to rectify our mistakes, to vigorously reshape the current process flow (in many systems, such as medicine, education), to emphasize the need for greener enivornment, to reward and encourage development of science and technology. WE Chinese have demonstrated to the world our ability to imitate and modify what we learnt from foreign powers, but the eras of invention and science renaissance were utterly remote (When, say, have we invented something since firework and compass, which were important breakthrough in their years?). It is no more due to coincidence or unique environment we rely on to create, but a system of reward, refinement, datamining, sharing and analysis that we could achieve our golden age of science and technology once again.
I like the article written by mr lam hang chi titled "且耀武慎揚威 莫忘天高地厚 " criticising problems in prc. they are a bit blunt, but thats what we chinese need to become a bigger nation. let us maintain this level of awareness and criticism and admiration of high intellectuals. In this way we can still anticipate a hopeful motherland.
Happy birthday, China.
2009年9月13日 星期日
祭: ICC慘劇與雷曼一週年
祭: ICC慘劇與雷曼一週年
防範於未然從來都是最好解決問題的辦法: 亂子還未有發生的時候就已經把問題處理掉, 這當然最好, 但是有這種先見之明的人有幾多? 剛過去的星期日九月十三日在尖沙咀發生了一宗嚴重工業意外，6名清潔工人清理泥頭期間，工作平台突然倒塌，從30樓直墮至10樓，其中5人死亡，1人仍然被困。
筆者聽到這則新聞特別感到婉惜, 尤其今次損失了這許多寶貴的生命. 清潔工人普遍知識不高, 面對這樣危害生命安全的工序, 他們固然可以及時指出安排的不善, 但設計工序的始終另有其人, 所以將責任推給他們絶對不公平. 既然如此, 當他們的生命在施工時時刻受到威脅, 那保障他們的安全, 確保每一個工序都妥善完整, 則政府及建築商會(負責編寫規章)和工程主管(負責執行規章)是責無旁貸的. 昨天從新聞報道上得知工人在升降機槽搭上工作平台, 再將搬進了5-6米高的泥頭雜物, 而施工時更有多達6名工人在工作平台上. 筆者粗略一算,以較輕的沙石一立平方米計大概重300公斤, 那麼在一部長10米闊6米的升降機將堆砌沙石,雜物至5米高便有起碼有20噸重,是標準升降機可承受重量的13倍以上!一部合規格的升降機尚且未能抵受這等重量, 何況是拘拘一個工作平台? 這樣明顯的問題為什麼沒有人提出? 如果說這是由於昨天是星期日, 所以工頭沒有全部上班所以未能即時制止, 那麼為甚麼還要施工? 再說做這些工程前主管有沒有跟工人講清楚安全事項, 如他們有什麼絶對不能做(如在升降機槽上搭工作間), 或有一些安全協定, 要他們簽字確實明白後才開工?
筆者之前工作的地點正是ICC,在其中一家投行的工作過. 正因為很多時候會回星期六日回辦公室工作, 亦有試過坐這座大厦的工業用電梯,所以聽到這則消息覺得特別痛心. 話說回來, 今次意外最好的應對方法是防範於未然. 那麼雷曼出事一週年後, 眾投行的表現又如何? 從出前雷曼當證券經紀的麥克唐納(Lawrence McDonald)口中我們知道的是, 雷曼事件的主因是管理人員明明知道樓市危機迫在眉睫，但仍繼續瘋狂押注. 是當時的管理層後知後覺也好, 是道德風險使然也好, 既然已成歷史, 我們儘管由它過去了. 但是一年後的今天投行依然故我: 好些大行還因為雷曼倒閉而增加了証劵交易的份額, 証券銷售方面, 藉故信用違约掉期差價(Credit Default Swap Spread)大幅回落而讓人嗤之以鼻的Accumulator回來了; 承繼著"優良"的金融創新智慧, 投行們還將人壽保甚至遺囑証券化. 當大家都對一年來政治經濟的巨大改變猶有餘悸時, 對金融生態攸攸然於天地之間的不變更感驚訝. 危機過去後所有都從新開始到最後問題再發生一切混沌又重新開始. 請問: 這就是我們進步理想的社會嗎? 我們傳統上未雨綢繆, 防範於未然的美德還在嗎?
從發展商撰文寫環球貿易廣場, 每每將大厦形容為香港頂級商厦, 與IFC二期形成香港新地標. 大厦的知名度凸顯了事件的嚴重性. 這在我們維港的門廊, 一級地標上的嚴重工業意外, 足夠喚醒我們對危機意識不足的現實嗎? 無獨有偶, 堂堂美國第一產業, 香港最大經濟支柱的金融業, 面對的也正是危機感的不足. 筆者很多年前看過一本書叫”人生遊戲的操作指南”(If Life is a game, these are the rules), 至今仍印象深刻. 書中提及其中一條規條是:”事情會不斷重複,直至它被掌握為止”. 人命和社會秩序都是我們所珍視的, 那我們由何時開始, 走到這一錯就錯, 才肯改過的地步?
防範於未然從來都是最好解決問題的辦法: 亂子還未有發生的時候就已經把問題處理掉, 這當然最好, 但是有這種先見之明的人有幾多? 剛過去的星期日九月十三日在尖沙咀發生了一宗嚴重工業意外，6名清潔工人清理泥頭期間，工作平台突然倒塌，從30樓直墮至10樓，其中5人死亡，1人仍然被困。
筆者聽到這則新聞特別感到婉惜, 尤其今次損失了這許多寶貴的生命. 清潔工人普遍知識不高, 面對這樣危害生命安全的工序, 他們固然可以及時指出安排的不善, 但設計工序的始終另有其人, 所以將責任推給他們絶對不公平. 既然如此, 當他們的生命在施工時時刻受到威脅, 那保障他們的安全, 確保每一個工序都妥善完整, 則政府及建築商會(負責編寫規章)和工程主管(負責執行規章)是責無旁貸的. 昨天從新聞報道上得知工人在升降機槽搭上工作平台, 再將搬進了5-6米高的泥頭雜物, 而施工時更有多達6名工人在工作平台上. 筆者粗略一算,以較輕的沙石一立平方米計大概重300公斤, 那麼在一部長10米闊6米的升降機將堆砌沙石,雜物至5米高便有起碼有20噸重,是標準升降機可承受重量的13倍以上!一部合規格的升降機尚且未能抵受這等重量, 何況是拘拘一個工作平台? 這樣明顯的問題為什麼沒有人提出? 如果說這是由於昨天是星期日, 所以工頭沒有全部上班所以未能即時制止, 那麼為甚麼還要施工? 再說做這些工程前主管有沒有跟工人講清楚安全事項, 如他們有什麼絶對不能做(如在升降機槽上搭工作間), 或有一些安全協定, 要他們簽字確實明白後才開工?
筆者之前工作的地點正是ICC,在其中一家投行的工作過. 正因為很多時候會回星期六日回辦公室工作, 亦有試過坐這座大厦的工業用電梯,所以聽到這則消息覺得特別痛心. 話說回來, 今次意外最好的應對方法是防範於未然. 那麼雷曼出事一週年後, 眾投行的表現又如何? 從出前雷曼當證券經紀的麥克唐納(Lawrence McDonald)口中我們知道的是, 雷曼事件的主因是管理人員明明知道樓市危機迫在眉睫，但仍繼續瘋狂押注. 是當時的管理層後知後覺也好, 是道德風險使然也好, 既然已成歷史, 我們儘管由它過去了. 但是一年後的今天投行依然故我: 好些大行還因為雷曼倒閉而增加了証劵交易的份額, 証券銷售方面, 藉故信用違约掉期差價(Credit Default Swap Spread)大幅回落而讓人嗤之以鼻的Accumulator回來了; 承繼著"優良"的金融創新智慧, 投行們還將人壽保甚至遺囑証券化. 當大家都對一年來政治經濟的巨大改變猶有餘悸時, 對金融生態攸攸然於天地之間的不變更感驚訝. 危機過去後所有都從新開始到最後問題再發生一切混沌又重新開始. 請問: 這就是我們進步理想的社會嗎? 我們傳統上未雨綢繆, 防範於未然的美德還在嗎?
從發展商撰文寫環球貿易廣場, 每每將大厦形容為香港頂級商厦, 與IFC二期形成香港新地標. 大厦的知名度凸顯了事件的嚴重性. 這在我們維港的門廊, 一級地標上的嚴重工業意外, 足夠喚醒我們對危機意識不足的現實嗎? 無獨有偶, 堂堂美國第一產業, 香港最大經濟支柱的金融業, 面對的也正是危機感的不足. 筆者很多年前看過一本書叫”人生遊戲的操作指南”(If Life is a game, these are the rules), 至今仍印象深刻. 書中提及其中一條規條是:”事情會不斷重複,直至它被掌握為止”. 人命和社會秩序都是我們所珍視的, 那我們由何時開始, 走到這一錯就錯, 才肯改過的地步?
2009年9月11日 星期五
中國醫療改革
中國醫療改革在四月份中國國務院通過《關於深化醫療衛生體制改革的意見》及《醫藥衛生體制改革近期重點實施方案（2009 - 2011 ）》下掀起帷幕. 這個改革的方針在期中一本藥業上市公司的年報有以下簡述:
衛生部制定了「健康中國二零二零年」計劃，分三步走：第一步是在二零一零年的時候，中國建立一個能夠覆蓋城市和鄉村的系統化的衛生服務體系；第二步是在二零一五年前，把中國衛生服務水平提高至發展中國家的前列；第三步是在二零二零年前要保持發展中國家的高水平
位置，希望能達到中等發達國家的水平。目前中國人口13億多，是美國的4.5倍，而目前中國醫藥水平消費只佔GDP的1%，而美國佔GDP的15%。如果三步走的計劃實施到位，中國藥品消費從現在起應進入快速提升時期，將有力促進規範有潛力的藥企快速發展。
中國發現二十年了每一次都用"假如十三億人都這樣...."去要人相信市場的可塑性太過不足了. 但醫療是隨着市場而進步: 20年前一個村民有病他食盤尼西林便算, 今天他要中西合壁, 住院打點滴吃抗生素,可見這是一個異常巨大的市場. 醫療行業製藥又要經年的研發, 藥監局的藥物生產証..小點毅力, 規模, 財力和關係也不行. 用Top Down Approach這樣找似乎是錯不了, 選擇投資的公司卻真正考功力.
衛生部制定了「健康中國二零二零年」計劃，分三步走：第一步是在二零一零年的時候，中國建立一個能夠覆蓋城市和鄉村的系統化的衛生服務體系；第二步是在二零一五年前，把中國衛生服務水平提高至發展中國家的前列；第三步是在二零二零年前要保持發展中國家的高水平
位置，希望能達到中等發達國家的水平。目前中國人口13億多，是美國的4.5倍，而目前中國醫藥水平消費只佔GDP的1%，而美國佔GDP的15%。如果三步走的計劃實施到位，中國藥品消費從現在起應進入快速提升時期，將有力促進規範有潛力的藥企快速發展。
中國發現二十年了每一次都用"假如十三億人都這樣...."去要人相信市場的可塑性太過不足了. 但醫療是隨着市場而進步: 20年前一個村民有病他食盤尼西林便算, 今天他要中西合壁, 住院打點滴吃抗生素,可見這是一個異常巨大的市場. 醫療行業製藥又要經年的研發, 藥監局的藥物生產証..小點毅力, 規模, 財力和關係也不行. 用Top Down Approach這樣找似乎是錯不了, 選擇投資的公司卻真正考功力.
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